2009–An Early Review

I suppose the list of top things in 2009 has got me to thinking that I should have an evaluation of the year and a prediction for the next–well I won’t!  Not until next month at least, when I’ve had a chance to come up with a theme that can describe the year.  In the meantime, here are a few unordered thoughts:

In the US, we’ve seen:

-A failure to commit to democracy, either in Latin America or South Asia.  The Coming Anarchy (a normally fantastic collection of international political analysis, most recently of the Dubai default threats) posits that this is good politicking, “thinking pagan while acting Victorian” to paraphrase.  I am inclined to disagree–what we have here is a supreme failure of our international morals and just as the tales of Salvador Allende and Hugo Chavez’s 2002 coup were getting old, we handing our neighbors the tragedy of Mel Zelaya.  So far the acrimony with the rest of the planet caused by our support of two undemocractically elected leaders (neither election was free or fair, feel free to dispute Honduras, but when the US ambassador laments the drastic deterioration of human rights and opposition media is mercilessly shut down, you don’t have much to stand on) has remained low, but we are steadily chipping away at the foundation of our image.  Perhaps we could never live up to it.  But so far what is only a public diplomacy nightmare will spread into real diplomacy.

–We will deal at any cost.  This is the mantra of the Obama administration and while so far he’ll get some plaudits for it from the moderates in the media–we have a healthcare bill, we will have a global warming deal, we have a strategy for Afghanistan, etc.–the reality is that the White House is every day looking like a pawn shop that is getting outplayed by its sellers.  They have quickly accepted the lowest common denominator on pretty much every dispute that has crossed their path.  I think the actual value of this has yet to be seen.  They might be making all the right deals and generations from now we might be studying the brilliancy of the Obama administration.  So I don’t want to be too gloom and doom on this point.  But sometimes there’s a value to playing hardball.  Cheney and Bush proved that.

–The NFL is entering a period of shaming and disgrace.  Didn’t expect that one, did you?  But personally, I think this concussion thing will hit them hard, not as hard as doping in MLB, but perhaps the implications are worse.  Major League Baseball players put their bodies at risk illegally for gain.  The league turned a blind eye to such behavior, but while it may have been tacitly encouraged, I don’t think any one thought for a moment it was above board, honest behavior.  The NFL has basically left some of its most talented players out to dry and refused to face a health risk that people have known about for a long time.  What’s worse is that this negligence has trickled down to every level of the sport.  I don’t think it will chip away at the dominance of the sport (thankfully) but I consider 2009 the year that Goodell got an asterisk next to his tenure.

–2010 will probably be a year of backlash.  I am expecting a ton of inappropriate blame to be placed on reality TV for all sorts of moral ills.  No more Kardashians will be able to get shows, VH1 will probably not deal with millionaires any more, and the White House and airports will reach the top levels of competition for security theater.  The result will be overall positive, but when it comes to larger issues about the American culture, this cure will probably have the same effect as self-flagellation did against the bubonic plague.  More finger pointing will abound in the media, and our sense of self-respect, common decency, and high culture will continue to suffer.

–Simplicity will become the new zeitgeist.  Ostentatious shows of wealth will be considered in poor taste, and anti-wealth populism will replace the new age Gospel of Wealth.  This will be a slow trend but it has already begun.  Barring anything short of a miraculous economic recovery, the Great Recession (stupid name) will dictate our new cultural modes.

There’s probably more I could say, but I’m getting ahead of myself, especially with these predictions.  In any event, more to come and Happy New Year.