Thoughts On The World Cup Draw

Now that I have sobered up from Friday afternoon (it takes awhile), here are some brief thoughts and my initial predictions by group.

Group A: Mexico and France lucked out with this group.  They are traditionally strong teams that have had relatively weak qualifying campaigns.  While the Mexicans finished strong, the French did not.  They are my favorites to go through, but I would like to temper that confidence with a two thoughts–one, Uruguay has a World Cup tradition that should not be underestimated, they have one twice and qualify in at least the second hardest group in the world.  They don’t produce as many stars as Mexico or France, but they should not be regarded as easy pickings.  Secondly, no host has ever been eliminated in the group stages.  The Bafana Bafana know this, and had a surprisingly good outing in the Confederations Cup, scoring on both Brazil and Spain.  Expect them to play hard before millions of encouraging fans. While I have picked the traditional powerhouses for this group, I say group A is the best place to look for an upset.

Group B: I’m going with Argentina and Nigeria in this group.  While I traditionally hate everything Argentine in sports, I love Diego Maradona, and I think his antics and the enormous pressure back home for a trophy win will propel the Argentines far in the tournament.  That being said, Argentina always remains a team ripe for a late round collapse.  I expect them to start strong and fade.  Nigeria, on the other hand, is a traditional soccer giant in Africa playing on relative home turf.  Oil money will probably bring more than a few fans to the stadiums.  I think this gives them a slight edge over Greece and South Korea, but I don’t think they are a shoo-in, both Greece and South Korea are somewhat competitive, and I think the talent levels are more or less even.  That being said, I think advantage goes to Nigeria.

Group C: England and the USA.  Obviously, there’s some bias here–Slovenia and Algeria are minnows, but they upset traditionally strong teams to make it in, so the worst thing the Stars and Strips can do is underestimate them, especially when they are riding on a high.  But I still think we can make it through, and perhaps pull an upset against the English.  They are a traditionally “slow start” team–to my eyes, an overrated team–and getting them in the first game is a good time to catch them wrong footed.  That being said, I have no illusions–if the US goes through, it will be on a second place berth.

Group D: Germany and Ghana.  The Germans are so good they are a seeded team, they followed up a respectable 3rd place finish in ’06 with a second place finish in Euro ’08.  They have a talented Polish strike team (EU rules are bizarre) and are all around better than competent to good or great.  Ghana is advantaged by being on their home continent and being traditionally good, as well as having one of Mattistan’s favorite players, Michael Essien.  Bias plays a big role here, especially this early on.  I like the Socceroos and have nothing against Serbia, but I don’t think either is a compelling case to advance past the group stage.

Group E: Netherlands and Cameroon.  This is an interesting group in my eyes, because I think there’s fair room for me to be completely wrong.  Netherlands are a solid pick–they have a relatively young team that is quick and plays spectacular football, BUT they tend to fade quickly against surprising opponents–Euro ’08 is the case in point: emphatic victories over Italy and France followed by a loss to Russia.  That was two years ago, but it’s recent enough to make me hedge my prediction by saying I expect them to advance and fall in the next round.  Cameroon has Eto’o and a few other notable players plus a strong soccer tradition, so I expect them to advance as well based on this.  Japan can be good, and has the potential for an upset, but with most of their players based domestically and a disappointing finish in ’06, I expect more of the same.  Denmark isn’t even on my radar.

Group F: Italy and Paraguay.  Italy is a shoo-in despite what I anticipate to be disappointing play.  I have never found the Italian style thrilling but one cannot dispute the fact that it is largely effective.  Their victory in ’06 in spite of France is testament to this.  That being said, they are a stale side much like their ’06 finals counterparts, and they have followed up the championship with disappointing finishes in Euro ’08 and Confed Cup ’09.  Even so, they have enough to make it through this group and came off lightly in the draw.  I would’ve rather seen France in this group.  Paraguay did well on a tough qualifying campaign and I think they will carry that momentum into South Africa.  Considering they are up against Slovakia (first qualification since they split with the Czech Republic) and New Zealand (second World Cup appearance, but qualifying in an Oceana group that no longer stars Australia), I don’t see them being too troubled until the elimination round.

Group G: Brazil and Portugal.  By far this is the group of death and the most entertaining.  My favorite part is that North Korea, in their first appearance since 1966, will not only feel like the selection committee dropped a nuclear bomb on their advancement hopes, but they may also be the spoiler that determines which two of the three good teams in their group advance.  Brazil, Portugal, and Cote d’Ivoire all have compelling names on their squads, and all the games should be hard pressed.  Brazil should continue to look sloppy as they always have in the Dunga era, and they will continue to somehow perform in spite of it.  Portugal is a team I generally regard as a choke team, and in general I would not expect them to advance here, especially given my bias of favoring African teams this year.  But they have one difference maker, Cristiano Ronaldo, which despite my hatred of him is probably all they need to advance.  Expect Cote d’Ivoire to experience a painful elimination and four years reflection on the fickleness of World Cup draw selections.

Group H: Spain and Chile.  Spain is dominant, despite a fall to the US in Confed ’09 which can be regarded as a (happy) fluke.  They have a defense that shuts down goals and they can score them on the other end, so expect them to go through this group pretty easily.  Chile and Honduras should be scrappy, and perhaps the former colonizer-colony story line will produce hard fought games.  But top players from both teams are based domestically and have dreams of competing in La Liga, while the Spaniards on this team compete in the Premiership and the best Spanish teams.  I expect interesting games, but it’s clear that class is on the Spanish side.  The Swiss somehow won their group–but it was weak, Greece was the hardest team, while opponents like Latvia, Luxemberg, and Moldova elicit a strong “blah.”  This team hosted Euro ’08 and did not advance, expect more of the same.

Elimination Round: Anyone who cares about looking like they know what they’re talking about in sports would not hazard to make selections here and at this stage.  I don’t care what I look like, so I will.  Here they are, without analysis:

Mexico v. Nigeria –> Nigeria
Argentina v. South Africa –> Argentina
England v. Ghana –> England
Germany v. USA –> Germany
Cameroon v. Paraguay –> Cameroon
Italy v. Netherlands –> Netherlands
Brazil v. Chile –> Brazil
Spain v. Portugal –> Spain

Semi-Finals:

Argentina v. Nigeria –> Argentina
England v. Germany –> England
Netherlands v. Cameroon –>Netherlands
Brazil v. Spain –> Spain

Quarter Finals:

Argentina v. England (pray for this match up) –> Argentina
Netherlands v. Spain –> Spain

World Cup Finals

Argentina v. Spain –> Spain

Spain has never won a World Cup, but I think the time is ripe.  They have the squad, they have the confidence, the coaching, and I think the way through all opponents.  I would expect a similar campaign to Euro ’08, a few tough matches but enough grit and class in the end for a confident win.  Argentina should make it through on Diego’s gall and craziness, but like Copa America ’07 they’ll look untouchable until an inexplicable collapse in the final game.